Plastic Cup Politics. Part One

Blair and Bush divide?

Is Tony Blair edging away from George Bush's stance on the war in Iraq? For starters Tony Blair has reduced funding for the Ministry of Defence and increased funding for domestic anti-terror organisations including SOCA and MI5. There have been complaints about the poorly funded army but could this be a shrewd decision in the long term? When all British troops have left Iraq the British Army will be bolstered in Afghanistan. With less financial pressure on the British Army in Afghanistan their effectiveness will rise. So from a fiscal standpoint underfunding the army for a year or two will save money in the long run. Tony Blair has obviously known he would make the announcement below for some time.

Today Tony Blair announced that 1,500 UK troops would be coming back from Iraq for good in the next couple of months. By summer 2008 they should all be back. The UK currently has 7,100 troops in Afghanistan. Lets look at the list of nations with troops in Iraq:

COALITION FORCES
US -132,000
UK - 7,100
South Korea - 2,300
Poland - 900
Georgia - 800
Australia - 900
Romania - 600
Denmark - 460
El Salvador - 380
Bulgaria - 150

A few weeks ago George Bush announced that the US was sending 21,500 more troops to Iraq later this year. With the UK pulling out I predict most other European nations and Australia will pull out as well. I believe they joined the coalition because they thought that the UK was making a good decision in trying to stay economically aligned with the US (a bloody huge economy). Now the UK have decided to withdraw troops other European nations and Australia (which has very close ties with the UK don't forget) will pull out. Then in the future they can say to the USA "We were in Iraq as long as your biggest ally (the UK) was. Because we were so loyal to you, you must invest in us". I predict Poland, Denmark, Bulgaria and Australia's governments will announce in the next month a full troop withdrawal plan. The other countries have other motives for keeping the US sweet but theirs are slightly different. El Salvador is the only Latin American country with troops in Iraq. El Salvador are basically saying to the US "All the other Latin American countries hate you but we like you. Can you please build all your South American factories and headquarters in our country please"? South Korea's motive is to try and prove to the US that they are close allies to reassure them over the North Korea factor. Georgia and Romania are former communist countries which are trying to boost ties with the US as if to say "We are your friends now. Please trust us, defend us and invest in us".

So why is George Bush sending in more troops? Perhaps he is predicting that with the coalition disintegrating he needs to make up for the lost of future troop numbers. Also, as has been proven, non-US coalition forces pacify the Iraq population much more than the American army. A good example is British Basra or Polish Najaf which sees relatively low insurgency compared to Baghdad and Falluja which are US controlled. The military planners at the Pentagon expect a rise in violence when the UK and others leave.

But clearly George Bush and Tony Blair have very different stances. On the surface they shouldn't. They are both in their political twilight years. But with Tony Blair bringing troops back from Iraq, cutting military funding and increasing domestic security funding George Bush is doing the exact opposite. George Bush seems to think that because he has 100s of thousands of troops sitting in sandy countries that he can't pronounce they are safe. So he cuts domestic security funding in the US. He then sends 21,500 more troops to Iraq and increases US defence funding 'again'. The US has a bigger defence budget of the entire countries of Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg combined!

To basically it looks like 'the special relationship' is crumbling. Whitehall and Washington are drifting apart.

Also a quick message to ignorant tabloid-readers. When you scream: Get Our Heroes back! you seem to miss facts.
In 2003 the UK had 47,000 troops in Iraq (half of the total army). It now has 7,100. The troops numbers have dramatically fallen over the past few yet nobody notices that.

I would very much appreciate comment on the above topics.

The above opinions are my own and nobody else's. Most of the facts are from memory so there may be incongruities.

It did snow!

Yes 10cm of snow fell on London. It was the worse snow since 1996. I can remember the 1996 snow- building a snowman in my front garden when I was 11. By why do all the papers have to have as the headline "Winter wonderland". Also "Its snow joke" is another one. No editorial imagination. Of course the whole country was brought to its knees as per usual. 1 million people didn't show for work in London and the UK economy lost 400million pounds because of the snow. But what about the extra porridge, gloves and tobboggan sales?My road at around 8:30am. My local park covered with snow in the morning.

A blizzard whipped up while we were in the park
An evergreen tree covered with snow.
A brave crocus pushes its way through the snow.

Blanket of snow over the park.

Weird snow/hoar frost patterns.

Also goto http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lv3M2veoR2M to watch 1 of my movies I filmed in the park during the blizzard. There is no sound. A 1 point I wipe some snow off the lense. Also look out for the flashing lights of gritter trucks.

Will it snow?

The UK met office has forecasted up to 15cm of snow in London tonight and tomorrow. Its 1c so its cold enough. I hope it does snow! Then Robyn and I can have a snowball fight in the park!

Me holding a snowball at the top of Sulphur Mountain, Alberta in October 2005

Almost terrorism.......

I forgot to post it at the time but a couple of weeks ago I was coming home from work as usual. In fact I was making good time. I was on the Hammersmith and City line at Aldgate East when the following event unfolded:

The train doors opened as usual and few people got in and out. The train wasn't very busy for the time of day and most of the seats were full with the odd person standing. The doors shut as normal. The train started moving then after about 5 seconds it lurched, there was a loud bang and all the lights went off in the train. It was at that moment, to everyones horror, that smoke was pouring from the tunnel in front of us. The driver came on the tannoy and said in a shaky voice "There is smoke coming from the tunnel ahead and we are unable to proceed". I was in the front carriage so the smoke was pretty bad. Everybody was looking at everybody else ashen-faced. Don't forget that it was nearby that Shehzad Tanweer detonated his bomb which killed 7 people and injured 171 on the 7th of July 2005.

We sat there for 20 minutes in grim silence. Then the driver came through the train and asked if everyone was feeling alright and if there were any pregnant women or anything. It was an experienced, short chap in his 50s and he had a strong London accent. He was desperately trying to keep everyone calm but the fact that the driver was coming down the train alarmed everybody. After going the length of the train he went back to his cab. Shortly he came on the tannoy saying "The Fire Brigade are at the scene". Through the clearing smoke on the platform I could make out firemen on the platform. They were standing in a circle discussing what had happened. I remembered that I had my camera so I took some photos of the firemen on the platform through the window of the door.

Later on the driver announced that the fire was caused by rubbish inside the tunnel that had somehow caught alight. Then we were off. But its nice to know if it had been a terrorist attack we would have been in safe hands.

Fireman talking on the platform.

Firemen on the empty platform

A policeman gives the firemen the all clear.